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December 20, 2006

CNN/Opinion Research Poll: Rudy Loses

Filed under: Polling — stoprudy @ 6:07 pm

The Hotline reports on a new CNN/Opinion Research showing Rudy Giuliani would be beat by Hillary Clinton and only tie Al Gore in the 2008 General Election.

H. Clinton 48%
Giuliani 46
Other/undec 6

A. Gore 46%
R. Giuliani 46
Other/undec 8

(Conducted 12/15-17; surveyed 1019 adults; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 12/18).)

So let’s get his straight, Rudy can’t beat one of the most divisive figures in politics or the man who lost his home state in 2000?

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December 12, 2006

New poll on the election; mixed results for Rudy

Filed under: Polling — stoprudy @ 2:11 am

A new WNBC/Marist poll hit over the weekend, and the results are mixed for Rudy Giuliani.

Thinking about the 2008 presidential elections, would you definitely consider voting for Rudy Giuliani, possibly consider voting for Rudy Giuliani, or would you definitely not consider voting for Rudy Giuliani?
Definitely not consider: 34%
Definitely consider: 17%

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights Republican. Would the fact that Rudy Giuliani has these positions be a major factor, a minor factor, or not a factor in deciding if you would vote for Rudy Giuliani for president in 2008?
Party: Major Factor, Minor Factor, Not a Factor
Registered Voters: 41%, 28%, 31%
Democrats: 35%, 25%, 40%
Republican: 47%, 31%, 22%
Independent: 40%, 30%, 30%

Do you think it is very likely, likely, not very likely, or not likely at all that Rudy Giuliani will be elected president in 2008?
Party: Very Likely, Likely, Not Very Likely, Not Likely At All, Unsure
Registered Voters: 8%, 30%, 37%, 17%, 8%
Democrat: 4%, 24%, 41%, 25%, 6%
Republican: 13%, 37%, 32%, 9%, 9%
Independent: 6%, 30%, 39%, 16%, 9%

(source)

Looking at these numbers a few things stand out.

First, Rudy Giuliani starts out with 34% of the electorate dead set against him; only 17% will definitely consider it. Mind you, this isn’t asking if the polled people will vote for him… only if they’ll consider it. Not good when 34% won’t even consider voting for you.

Second, an overwhelming majority of GOP voters (78%) will consider his stance on social issues; 47% say it will play a “major factor.” Given the GOP base’s position on gays, guns, and life this is going to hurt him… if it ever gets out. So we’ll keep pounding the message away.

Third, even if he runs, a majority of registered voters don’t think he’ll win. Nothing like optimism among the masses as to your chances of success to make your campaign worthwhile.

December 8, 2006

Rudy Giuliani: Insiders’ say he’s weak

Filed under: Polling — stoprudy @ 6:48 pm

The National Journal is out with a new Insider’s poll. The poll surveyed Congressional and Political Insiders, with 145 GOPers and 147 Dems being asked questions. The results? Rudy Giuliani was picked 3rd from last to be the GOP nominee, and was only the 3rd strongest candidate for either president of vice-president. Clearly the professional political insiders think that if the GOP wants to win in ’08, they must choose someone other than Giuliani.

The Results of the Survey:

Who Will Be GOP WH Nominee?
(First-place votes only)
J. McCain 73%
M. Romney 18
R. Giuliani 5
N. Gingrich 1
M. Huckabee 1

Who Would Be The Strongest GOP WH Candidate? (GOP, Dem)
J. McCain 56%, 71%
M. Romney 25, 11
R. Giuliani 14, 14
H. Barbour 1, —
G. Pataki 1, —
C. Powell 1, —
M. Sanford 1, —
G. Allen –, 1
J. Bush –, 1
J. Danforth –, 1
M. Huckabee –, 1
N. Gingrich –, —

Who Would Be The Strongest GOP VP Nominee? (GOPers only)
M. Romney 20%
C. Rice 18
R. Giuliani 12
H. Barbour 8
J. Bush 5
C. Hagel 5
T. Pawlenty 5

(Story on the polling here.)

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