A new WNBC/Marist poll hit over the weekend, and the results are mixed for Rudy Giuliani.
Thinking about the 2008 presidential elections, would you definitely consider voting for Rudy Giuliani, possibly consider voting for Rudy Giuliani, or would you definitely not consider voting for Rudy Giuliani?
Definitely not consider: 34%
Definitely consider: 17%
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights Republican. Would the fact that Rudy Giuliani has these positions be a major factor, a minor factor, or not a factor in deciding if you would vote for Rudy Giuliani for president in 2008?
Party: Major Factor, Minor Factor, Not a Factor
Registered Voters: 41%, 28%, 31%
Democrats: 35%, 25%, 40%
Republican: 47%, 31%, 22%
Independent: 40%, 30%, 30%
Do you think it is very likely, likely, not very likely, or not likely at all that Rudy Giuliani will be elected president in 2008?
Party: Very Likely, Likely, Not Very Likely, Not Likely At All, Unsure
Registered Voters: 8%, 30%, 37%, 17%, 8%
Democrat: 4%, 24%, 41%, 25%, 6%
Republican: 13%, 37%, 32%, 9%, 9%
Independent: 6%, 30%, 39%, 16%, 9%
Looking at these numbers a few things stand out.
First, Rudy Giuliani starts out with 34% of the electorate dead set against him; only 17% will definitely consider it. Mind you, this isn’t asking if the polled people will vote for him… only if they’ll consider it. Not good when 34% won’t even consider voting for you.
Second, an overwhelming majority of GOP voters (78%) will consider his stance on social issues; 47% say it will play a “major factor.” Given the GOP base’s position on gays, guns, and life this is going to hurt him… if it ever gets out. So we’ll keep pounding the message away.
Third, even if he runs, a majority of registered voters don’t think he’ll win. Nothing like optimism among the masses as to your chances of success to make your campaign worthwhile.